How often do home teams win in the SDHL?

In 1,764 games in The Hockey Analytics SDHL jubilee export, home teams won 51.9% of the time — a thin edge, not a fortress.

How tight are SDHL games?

36.0% of those games were decided by one goal; 14.4% were blowouts.

Do imported players dominate scoring?

Foreign players were about 39.9% of the player pool in the jubilee window but accounted for 62.4% of goals — over-represented in scoring, not alone a title formula without depth.

Where does the data come from?

Validated MotherDuck export `sdhl_extended.json` (exported 2026-07-09), covering the SDHL era summarized in our jubilee report (1,764 matches, 9,334 goals, 1,088 players).

SDHL home ice is barely an edge — and imports score more than their roster share

Home ice in women’s elite hockey is often sold as destiny. Import stars get the same myth treatment on the other side of the ledger. Our SDHL jubilee export lets both claims sit next to actual counts.

The short version

1,764 SDHL games · 9,334 goals · 1,088 players in the jubilee export.
Home win rate: 51.9% — barely above a coin flip.
36% of games decided by one goal.
Foreign players ≈ 40% of the pool, but 62.4% of goals — scoring weight without “imports alone decide titles.”

Home ice is real — and small

Measure	Value
Games	1,764
Home wins	915
Home win %	51.9%
One-goal games	635 (36.0%)
Blowouts	254 (14.4%)

A 51.9% home win rate is not “no effect.” It is also nowhere near the folklore advantage fans recite when a series goes back home. In a league where more than a third of games are one-goal affairs, special teams, late 5v5 structure, and goaltending variance usually matter more than the building.

Imports: over-represented in goals, not a closed system

Season-by-season foreign player share (export foreign_pct):

Season	Foreign player %
2016/17	25.4
2019/20	40.3
2020/21	40.6
2023/24	41.6
2024/25	35.4
2025/26	39.9

Across the jubilee window, foreign players were about 39.9% of the player pool but scored 62.4% of goals. That supports a precise claim: imports punch above roster share in scoring. It does not prove “import stars alone decide SDHL titles.” Dynasties still need depth, special teams (power-play goals were 22.5% of all goals in the jubilee summary), and structure — themes we keep in the SDHL jubilee report rather than flattening into a single hero narrative.

What we are not claiming

No xG, zone-entry, or tactical causality from this export.
Player-card bars in some demo visuals are marked illustrative in validation — this article uses league aggregates only.
Sweden Club Pack remains pilot-limited; this post is research from the SDHL lake export, not a SaaS pitch.

Method

Validated pipeline: MotherDuck SDHL gold → export_sdhl_extended.py → sdhl_extended.json (exported 2026-07-09), checked in our report validation gate.

For another lake-backed Swedish study, see SHL timeouts over five seasons and SHL junior ice-time share (JITS%).

Source: The Hockey Analytics · MotherDuck SDHL · Stockholm.