Cliché Check

Third periods are full of comebacks

Comebacks happen, but rarely: trailing after 40 minutes, teams win about one game in seven – and almost never from two goals down.

Data through 2025/26

Myth

HA Data through 2025/26 · HA

Down 1 after P2 → win

24.6%

All trailing after P2 → win

13.6%

Down 2+ after P2 → win

3.2%

What the data says

HA 2025/26 (311 games): teams trailing after two periods won 13.6% (incl. OT/SO); down by one 24.6%, down by two or more 3.2%.
SHL and HA 2020/21–2025/26 (4,023 games): trailing teams won 13.7%; a two-goal lead after two periods held 95.7% of the time.

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