Cliché Check

Momentum is everything

Goals do not come in bursts. The chance of another goal within three minutes is the same as random scoring would give.

Data through 2025/26

Myth

SHL Data through 2025/26 · SHL

Next goal ≤3 min after go-ahead goal

21.3%

Next goal ≤3 min after equalizer

22.2%

Next goal ≤3 min after any goal

23.1%

Random baseline

23.2%

What the data says

SHL 2020/21–2025/26: after any goal, the next goal came within three minutes 23.1% of the time, against a random baseline of 23.2%.
After a go-ahead goal: 21.3%. After an equalizer: 22.2%. The scoring team got the next quick goal 11.5% of the time, the opponent 11.6%.

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