Expected goals (xG)
Each shot gets a 0–1 goal probability from location, type, traffic, and situation. xGF% = share of expected goals for vs against while on ice.
Corsi (CF%)
All shot attempts (on net, missed, blocked). Measures volume and zone time proxy — can diverge from xG when shots come from the perimeter.
Key findings
- xG isolates process quality; goals alone mix luck and goalie variance.
- Corsi leads xG when a team dumps pucks from the blue line — high CF%, lower danger.
- GSAX (goals saved above expected) separates goalie performance from team defence in front.
- Over small samples (a playoff series), both metrics need context — game state and special teams mix.
What this means for a club or media team
Clubs use xGF% for line and acquisition decisions; CF% for systems that prioritise territorial play. Media should pair one number with the other in headlines — “dominated shots but not chances” is a coherent story. Betting and fantasy users lean on xG for regression signals; Corsi for pace and volume props.
Full research note: read on Research →