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Date: May 10, 2026 | Site: thehockeyanalytics.com
Zone entries are one of the most predictive metrics in playoff hockey. Through the first three games of the 2026 Conference Semifinals, a clear split has emerged: some teams are carrying the puck into the offensive zone at high rates, while others are leaning on the dump-and-chase forecheck. Here is what the data shows.
Every offensive zone possession begins with a zone entry. How a team enters — whether by carrying the puck through or over the defensive blue line, or by dumping it in and chasing — shapes everything that follows.
Controlled entries (carry-ins) generate more shot attempts and expected goals per sequence than dump-ins. In the playoffs, when defensive structures tighten and neutral-zone play becomes more calculated, controlled entry rates tend to drop across the league. The teams that maintain high carry-in rates often have the skating and puck-moving skill to beat forechecks that regular-season opponents couldn’t sustain for 60-plus games.
In Round 2 of 2026, the split between teams is visible.
The table below covers all eight Conference Semifinal teams, using all-situations zone entry data tracked through the first three games of each series. Entry rate is per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. Scoring chance figures are from sequences that began with each entry type.
| Team | Zone Entries / 60 | Carry-In % | Dump-In % | SC/60 (Carry) | SC/60 (Dump) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edmonton Oilers | 28.4 | 57% | 43% | 18.3 | 8.1 |
| Carolina Hurricanes | 27.1 | 53% | 47% | 15.9 | 9.4 |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | 26.8 | 51% | 49% | 16.2 | 7.8 |
| Colorado Avalanche | 25.0 | 49% | 51% | 15.4 | 8.6 |
| Florida Panthers | 25.3 | 47% | 53% | 14.7 | 11.2 |
| Dallas Stars | 24.6 | 41% | 59% | 14.1 | 10.9 |
| Winnipeg Jets | 23.8 | 38% | 62% | 12.8 | 10.3 |
| Boston Bruins | 22.9 | 36% | 64% | 11.9 | 11.7 |
Round 2 carry-in average: ~43%. Regular-season baseline: ~50–52%. The compression confirms what we see in most playoff years — teams defend blue lines harder when the series is on the line.
Edmonton Oilers — 57% carry-in rate
No team in Round 2 generates controlled entries like Edmonton. Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl have always been elite entry skaters, but what stands out in these playoffs is how involved the supporting cast has been at the blue line. Oilers defensemen are joining rushes and holding puck possession through the neutral zone, and Edmonton’s carry-in sequences are generating scoring chances at nearly 2.3x the rate of their dump-in plays.
The Oilers are also above average in denying opposing teams’ dump-ins. Their speed in the neutral zone compresses the time opponents have to establish positioning before the puck is in the zone.
Carolina Hurricanes — 53% carry-in rate
Carolina’s system is designed to create controlled entry opportunities through relentless neutral-zone pressure. The Hurricanes convert 53% of their entry attempts into controlled zone entries, well above the Round 2 average.
Their process is collective rather than star-driven: Andrei Svechnikov and Seth Jarvis are strong carry-in skaters, but the whole forward group wins puck battles at the blue line. This is what makes Carolina’s entry profile durable across 60 minutes rather than dependent on matchups.
Toronto Maple Leafs — 51% carry-in rate
Toronto sits just above the carry-in midpoint. Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner are effective entry skaters, but the Leafs’ numbers are somewhat series-dependent — their opponent’s defensive structure has influenced how often Toronto can attempt carry-ins at all. Worth watching how this trends if the series extends.
Boston Bruins — 64% dump-in rate
The Bruins are the heaviest dump-and-chase team in Round 2. That is by design. Boston’s current system plays a structure-first game that often deliberately trades puck control on entry for an established forecheck. Their defensemen hold high before the blue line, giving forwards time to set up behind the net before the puck arrives.
The notable data point: Boston’s scoring chances per dump-in sequence (11.7) are the highest among Round 2 teams. Their forecheck retrieval rate is elite. This is the counterargument to carry-in preference — if you retrieve the puck reliably and create high-quality cycles, the lower entry shot quality is partially offset. The Bruins are making this work.
Winnipeg Jets — 62% dump-in rate
Winnipeg relies on physicality and net-front presence after dump-ins rather than a fast-pressure forecheck. The Jets rank last in zone entries per 60, meaning they are not creating entry volume, and they are not carrying pucks in efficiently. This creates a predictability problem: opposing defenses can cheat toward dump-in positioning without consequence.
Their SC/60 on dump-in sequences (10.3) is well below Boston’s, suggesting the Jets are not recovering pucks with the same effectiveness as other heavy dump-in teams. Volume and quality are both down.
Across these eight teams through three games each, the correlation between carry-in percentage and 5-on-5 expected goals for percentage (xGF%) is strong (r = 0.71). Teams carrying the puck in more often are generating a larger share of high-danger scoring chances.
That correlation does not mean dump-and-chase is a losing strategy in all contexts — Boston’s retrieval numbers complicate that argument. But the threshold matters. Below approximately 38% controlled entries, teams are conceding shot quality before the first pass in the offensive zone is made.
The gap between Edmonton (57%) and Boston (36%) is substantial. Of all Oilers zone entries, fewer than half are dump-ins. Of all Bruins entries, nearly two-thirds are. The downstream effects on shot volume and quality are visible in the SC/60 columns above.
Zone entry data is tracked manually and includes all zone entries at 5-on-5 strength through Games 1–3 of each Conference Semifinal series. Entry type is classified as carry-in (skater crosses the blue line with puck possession) or dump-in (puck shot or chipped into the zone). Failed entries — turnovers at the blue line — are excluded from carry-in/dump-in percentages but included in total attempts. Scoring chance definitions follow Natural Stat Trick thresholds.